急需一篇经济类英文文章，有翻译更好，3000字以上

1. 急需一篇经济类英文文章，有翻译更好，3000字以上

To solve the "three rural issues" the national economic and social development of the important position （题目）                      To solve the "three rural issues" the national economic and social development of the important position 16 big reports to solve the problem of "agriculture, rural areas and farmers" in the national economy and social development in the important position, and made an important deployment for the rural economy flourish. Implement 16 big spirits, quicken the development of rural economy, in addition to economic work itself, should also be around the center, to do a good job of manifold. This article only talent team construction in the development of rural economy, grass-roots democracy and the legal system, and the transformation government function, work way talk about superficial view. First, to strengthen the construction of rural talent team Deng xiaoping in 1992 when inspecting southern once pointed out: "socialism with Chinese things can be done, and can stick to the reform and opening to the outside world, can a bit faster economic development, countries can stability, in a sense, the key lies in the people." The scientific theory, pointed out the importance of talent issues. To speed up the development of rural economy, the work reorganization, the key lies in the talented person, is to bring up a qualified team of village cadres and professional and technical personnel team. 1. To build a qualified team of village cadres In the development of rural economy, village cadres has a very important role. Take the lead in labor to get rich, they should not only physically, but to lead the schiscosomiasis residents ran off; Should not only committed to the development of collective economy, but also do a good job in the school, pays special attention to the social order and family planning, deal with various conflicts happen in villagers, all aspects of tasks assigned by superior. Village cadres responsibility is significant, a difficult task, and therefore should have higher cultural ideological quality and strong ability to work. The reality? In a backward economy and culture village, village cadres team in a number of people is not qualified or not qualified. One is the cultural quality and work ability is poor, even exists by illiteracy and semiliterate as the phenomenon of village cadres. 2 it is to work the lack of initiative, the frontline, muddle along; Some even oppressed villagers, extorting bribes, occupy the collective property. 3 it is older, poor physical quality. The urgent requirement to strengthen the construction of village cadres team. In the construction of qualified team of village cadres, the prominent problems, one is lack of the rural talent; Secondly, high quality and strong capability of most of the villagers were happy to go out by public works, or working at home to get rich, rather than when the village cadres. According to the above problem, attention should be paid to the following work: one is the selected staff of county and township party and government organs, surplus cadres to counting, the village committee office, retain their original level, treatment, arranged work after term expires, outstanding person give priority to promote use. 2 it is in the distribution of college graduates, selection of outstanding young into the civil servants in accordance with the program, then sent to the schiscosomiasis. Both for the village cadres to increase the vigor and vitality, and train the reserve force for township and village cadres. Three from the rural middle school graduates, demobilized soldiers among the people, go out the works, selecting talents, the party school of learning examination into the city, county, in the school of old technical secondary school education after sent back to the local business. Four is on the basis of economic development, raise the economic benefits of village cadres, amply rewarded 
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For outstanding contributor, give outstanding cadres with special difficulties more subsidies or benefits, and the work of village cadres to give more understanding and support. In this way, can arouse the enthusiasm of existing work of village cadres, but also to attract talented people into the village cadres team. 2. The construction of professional and technical personnel team At present, except a handful of developed areas, rural areas there are desperately short of professional and technical personnel problems, restricted the development of the economy. Without the guidance of the scientific and technical personnel, demonstration, adjust the agricultural structure; it will be difficult to receive effect Didn't understand technical and management personnel to participate in, the township and village enterprises is difficult to run, also hard to do well. In real life, such examples abound. Construction of rural professional and technical personnel team, first of all, to the problem in the long term, to pay special attention to the foundational work, namely the compulsory education. Now, there are a number of students in rural area is not finished reading junior middle school, the school farming or go out to work, the situation is worrisome. Suggest governments and education departments at all levels to seriously examine investigations, authenticity, seriousness of the problem of clear, study and formulate measures, strengthen law enforcement of compulsory education. Second, to deepen the reform of education system, develop vocational and technical education in rural areas. To expand the scale of college of agriculture and forestry colleges, increasing enrollment; Reform the teaching content and teaching methods; Improve the system of the distribution of the graduates. Once again, to do a good job of adult farmers vocational and technical training. Suggested that organized by relevant government departments, regularly or not regularly held various non-profit agricultural practical techniques training; Organize experts to rural compulsory consultation. At the same time, the agricultural technology extending stations earnestly work; Do a good job in radio and television in the seminar program, let farmers to spend less and benefit. Finally, to encourage the professional and technical personnel in the city, going to the countryside educated youth, LingBan agricultural products processing enterprises, LingBan farms, forest farms, animal farms, orchards, etc., in the development of rural enterprise to also get development. In this regard, the government should formulate feasible preferential policies, and the typical advanced strongly and weigh award. Second, to strengthen the construction of rural grassroots democracy and legal system To strengthen the construction of rural grassroots democracy and legal system, to realize rural political civilization, is the comprehensive construction socialism new countryside a important task, is the important guarantee of rural economic prosperity. Because this part of the work done well, can form good rural social order, to realize rural political stability, make the farmers to live and work in peace and contentment, and thus to promote the development of rural economy. Conversely, ignoring the democracy and legal system construction, is inevitably spawns and intensify the contradictions, cause interpersonal tensions, especially the masses, petition, abusive, deterioration of public security and thus the interference and damage agricultural production, rural construction. As deng xiaoping said: "no democracy, no socialism, there would be no socialist modernization." China's rural grassroots democracy is the villagers self-government. In practice, this system demands do: village cadres elected by the villagers. Major problem is decided by the villagers assembly or villagers' representatives meeting to discuss; Establish village regulations to realize villagers' self-management; Village affairs to enhance supervision of the villagers. Practice has proved, do a good job in the village 
 

 
    望采纳

2. 急求一篇经济类英文文章 翻译后能达到5000字就行（带上中文翻译）

Macroeconomics is a sub-field of economics that examines the behavior of the economy as a whole, once all of the individual economic decisions of companies and industries have been summed. Economy-wide phenomena considered by macroeconomics include Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and how it is affected by changes in unemployment, national income, rate of growth, and price levels. 
In contrast, microeconomics is the study of the economic behaviour and decision-making of individual consumers, firms, and industries. 
Macroeconomics can be used to analyze how to influence government policy goals such as economic growth, price stability, full employment and the attainment of a sustainable balance of payments. 
Macroeconomics is sometimes used to refer to a general approach to economic reasoning, which includes long term strategies and rational expectations in aggregate behavior. 
Until the 1930s most economic analysis did not separate out individual economics behavior from aggregate behavior. With the Great Depression of the 1930s, suffered throughout the developed world at the time, and the development of the concept of national income and product statistics, the field of macroeconomics began to expand. Particularly influential were the ideas of John Maynard Keynes, who formulated theories to try to explain the Great Depression. Before that time, comprehensive national accounts, as we know them today, did not exist . 
One of the challenges of economics has been a struggle to reconcile macroeconomic and microeconomic models. Starting in the 1950s, macroeconomists developed micro-based models of macroeconomic behavior (such as the consumption function). Dutch economist Jan Tinbergen developed the first comprehensive national macroeconomic model, which he first built for the Netherlands and later applied to the United States and the United Kingdom after World War II. The first global macroeconomic model, Wharton Econometric Forecasting Associates LINK project, was initiated by Lawrence Klein and was mentioned in his citation for the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics in 1980. 
Theorists such as Robert Lucas Jr suggested (in the 1970s) that at least some traditional Keynesian (after British economist John Maynard Keynes) macroeconomic models were questionable as they were not derived from assumptions about individual behavior, although it was not clear whether the failures were in microeconomic assumptions or in macroeconomic models. However, New Keynesian macroeconomics has generally presented microeconomic models to shore up their macroeconomic theorizing, and some Keynesians have contested the idea that microeconomic foundations are essential, if the model is analytically useful. An analogy might be that the fact that quantum phisics is not fully consistent with relativity theory doesn´t mean that realtivity is false. Many important microeconomic assumptions have never been proved, and some have proved wrong. 
The various schools of thought are not always in direct competition with one another - even though they sometimes reach differing conclusions. Macroeconomics is an ever evolving area of research. The goal of economic research is not to be "right," but rather to be accurate. It is likely that none of the current schools of economic thought perfectly capture the workings of the economy. They do, however, each contribute a small piece of the overall puzzle. As one learns more about each school of thought, it is possible to combine aspects of each in order to reach an informed synthesis. 
The traditional distinction is between two different approaches to economics: Keynesian economics, focusing on demand; and supply-side (or neo-classical) economics, focusing on supply. Neither view is typically endorsed to the complete exclusion of the other, but most schools do tend clearly to emphasize one or the other as a theoretical foundation. 
• Keynesian economics focuses on aggregate demand to explain levels of unemployment and the business cycle. That is, business cycle fluctuations should be reduced through fiscal policy (the government spends more or less depending on the situation) and monetary policy. Early Keynesian macroeconomics was "activist," calling for regular use of policy to stabilize the capitalist economy, while some Keynesians called for the use of incomes policies. 
• Supply-side economics delineates quite clearly the roles of monetary policy and fiscal policy. The focus for monetary policy should be purely on the price of money as determined by the supply of money and the demand for money. It advocates a monetary policy that directly targets the value of money and does not target interest rates at all. Typically the value of money is measured by reference to gold or some other reference. The focus of fiscal policy is to raise revenue for worthy government investments with a clear recognition of the impact that taxation has on domestic trade. It places heavy emphasis on Say's law, which states that recessions do not occur because of failure in demand or lack of money. 
• Monetarism, led by Milton Friedman, which holds that inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon. It rejects fiscal policy because it leads to "crowding out" of the private sector. Further, it does not wish to combat inflation or deflation by means of active demand management as in Keynesian economics, but by means of monetary policy rules, such as keeping the rate of growth of the money supply constant over time. 
• New Keynesian economics, which developed partly in response to new classical economics, strives to provide microeconomic foundations to Keynesian economics by showing how imperfect markets can justify demand management. 
• Austrian economics is a laissez-faire school of macroeconomics. It focuses on the business cycle that arises from government or central-bank interference that leads to deviations from the natural rate of interest. 
• Post-Keynesian economics represents a dissent from mainstream Keynesian economics, emphasizing the role of uncertainty and the historical process in macroeconomics. 
• New classical economics. The original theoretical impetus was the charge that Keynesian economics lacks microeconomic foundations -- i.e. its assertions are not founded in basic economic theory. This school emerged during the 1970s. This school asserts that it does not make sense to claim that the economy at any time might be "out-of-equilibrium". Fluctuations in aggregate variables follow from the individuals in the society continuously re-optimizing as new information on the state of the world is revealed. Later yielded an explicit school which argued that macro-economics does not have micro-economic foundations, but is instead the tool of studying economic systems at equilibrium. 
宏观经济学是一种分场经济学的行为,研究是在整个经济中,一旦所有的个人的经济决策,为公司和产业被。宏观经济学认为经济现象包括国内生产总值(GDP)以及它是如何变化影响失业的国民收入的)经济成长率、价格水平。

相反,微观经济学研究的就是经济行为和决策的个体消费者,公司和行业。

宏观经济学可以用来分析如何影响政府的政策的目标,比如经济增长,价格稳定,充分就业和获取可持续国际收支差额。

宏观经济学有时用来指一个经济理论的主要途径,包括长期战略的期望和理性综合行为。

直到30年代为止,大部分的经济分析没有独立的个人经济综合行为举止。与1930年代的经济大萧条,遭受了在所有发达国家,发展国民收入的概念和产品的统计数据,但是研究领域的宏观经济学开始扩展。具有特殊影响力的想法是,约翰•梅纳德凯恩斯理论,努力向他们解释制定了经济大萧条。在那时候,综合国民经济核算,如同我们知道他们今天,是不存在的。

经济学的一个挑战是一场斗争调和宏观经济政策和微观经济政策,模型。开始于20世纪50年代,macroeconomists发达micro-based模型的宏观经济行为(如消费函数)。1月Tinbergen荷兰经济学家第一个全面发展国家宏观经济模型,该模型他第一次建成为荷兰和后应用于美国和英国二战之后。第一个全球宏观经济模型,沃顿计量预测伙伴联系工程项目,发生在劳伦斯发起克莱恩和被提及他的嘉奖经济学诺贝尔经济学奖1980年。

理论家如罗伯特·卢卡斯认为(是在上世纪70年代),认为至少有一些传统的凯恩斯(英国经济学家约翰梅纳德凯恩斯)宏观经济模型都是可疑的,因为他们不是来源于假设的个人行为,虽然现在还不清楚这些失败在微观经济的假定,或是对宏观经济模型。然而,最新凯恩斯主义的宏观微观模型提出了大致以支持他们的宏观经济理论有争议,一些凯恩斯主义者的想法,微观经济基础是必要的,如果模型是分析有用的。打个比方可能是,这样的事实,即量子phisics并不完全符合相对论´,并不代表没有realtivity是假的。许多重要的微观经济假设从来没有被证明,而有些人的证明是错误的。

各种各样的思想学派并不总是在彼此的直接竞争,尽管他们有时会达到不同的结论。宏观经济学是一种前所未有的领域的研究。研究经济学的目标不是"正确",而是是精确的。很有可能是学校目前尚无一个经济思想完全捕捉运作方式的经济。不过,他们的贡献每一小块整体难题。当你学会更多关于每个思想学派,它能把方面的每一个为了达到一个通知的合成。

传统的区别是留给经济学两种不同的方法,重点凯恩斯经济学和供方需求;(或古典)经济学、关注供应。也都是典型的观点完全排除其他,但大多数学校都往往清晰地强调一个或另一个是的理论基础。

•凯恩斯经济学交融在总需求,以解释失业率和商业周期。商业周期波动,应减少通过财政政策(政府花费或多或少根据实际情况)和货币政策。早期凯恩斯主义的宏观经济学是“活动家,定期使用《召唤的政策稳定资本主义经济,虽然有些凯恩斯主义要求使用收入政策。

•供给的经济学的作用很明显地在当前货币政策与财政政策。关注于货币政策应该是完全对价格的钱所确定的货币供应的需求的特点,为了金钱。它提倡货币政策,直接目标钱的价值,不目标利率。典型的钱的价值在于用参考金或其他参考。财政政策的重点是提高政府农业投资价值的收入为一个明确的认识税收的影响在国内贸易。它设置了过度强调了说的法律,它表明不会发生经济衰退需求下降、因为没有缺钱。

•货币主义的带领下,由弗里德曼,认为始终通货膨胀是一种货币现象。财政政策拒绝,因为会导致“挤退”的私人生活。此外,它不希望对抗通货膨胀或通货紧缩采用主动需求管理在凯恩斯经济学,通过货币政策规则,即坚持的增长速度恒定的钱。

凯恩斯•新经济发达的部分原因是为了适应新古典经济学、致力于提供凯恩斯现代经济学的微观经济基础显示出了市场的不完善就能名正言顺的需求管理等。

•奥地利经济学是个自由放任主义的学校的宏观经济。它侧重于商业周期,而政府或中央银行的干扰导致偏离自然失业率的兴趣。

•Post-Keynesian经济学所代表了凯恩斯经济学主流的作用,强调历史过程中不确定性和宏观经济。

•新古典经济学。原理论动力的费用是凯恩斯经济学缺乏有效的微观经济基础——亦即其断言不成立于基本经济理论。这所学校出现在20世纪70年代。这所学校断言它是没有道理的主张经济会随时out-of-equilibrium”。波动的总变量遵从的在这个社会的个人不断re-optimizing新信息的状态的世界就会显现出来。后来取得了一个显式学校一样,认为宏观经济学没有微观经济基础,反而学习经济系统的工具在平衡。

3. 求一篇3000字左右的关于商业或经济的英语论文。带译文。最好有网址

　　试论佤族经济社会的发展战略 On the economic and social development strategy of the Va [Wa] Nationality

　　摘 要：佤族是我国云南省独有的同时也是跨境而居的民族，主要聚居在我国云南省南部边疆地区和缅甸佤邦。当前，在国家的大力扶持下，佤族经济水平较解放前有所提高，但情形仍不乐观，受历史、科技、资金、交通等因素以及不合理的开发和一些落后的发展决策的影响，使得佤族与外界的贫富差距逐渐增大。因此，必须用新的思想和策略来指导佤族经济社会的发展。

　　关键词：佤族；经济；社会；发展。

　　Abstract: The Wa people of Yunnan Province in China is also unique cross-border residents living in the nation, mainly live in southern China's Yunnan Province and Myanmar border areas Wa. Currently, the country's strong support, Wa improved economic level than before liberation, but the situation is still not optimistic, by the history, technology, finance, transportation and other factors as well as a number of irrational development and the impact of development decisions behind the making Wa gap with the outside world increases. Therefore, we must use new ideas and strategies to guide economic and social development Wa.

　　Key words: Wa; economy; society; development.

4. 求3000字英文（是3000字英文，不用翻译）经济类，急急急！！！

Pact of uncompetitiveness
   Dangers lurk in Franco-German plans for a more tightly integrated euro zone 
Running the euro 
.EUROPEANS have learned to let their attention drift when Brussels starts droning on about “process”. But every so often, a change in the mechanics of the European Union really does matter. Just such a moment looms next month, at the first summit meeting of the euro zone ever to be held, when Germany’s Angela Merkel and France’s Nicolas Sarkozy will press for agreement to a “pact of competitiveness”—part of a grand bargain under which more money will be made available to bail out troubled euro-zone economies, with perhaps more flexibility in its use. The pact sounds technical, but it foreshadows something much bigger: a closer integration of the euro zone that could hold threats for the entire EU. 
On the face of it, the pact is about bolstering the economic bit of Europe’s economic and monetary union (see Charlemagne). Germany’s desire for more intrusive controls over euro members’ fiscal and economic policies is understandable after last year’s bail-outs. And the competitiveness pact includes some sensible ideas, including raising retirement ages to 67 and scrapping indexation systems that link wages to prices—though these will be hard to agree. 
But the pact does little to resolve the euro’s current sovereign-debt crisis (see article). First Greece and then Ireland have been bailed out. Portugal may be next. Yet though this may buy time, it fails to recognise that Greece and maybe the other two as well are insolvent. Unless other euro-zone members (for which read Germany) are prepared to make large fiscal transfers, which is unlikely, there is no alternative to debt restructuring—and it would be sensible to start this now.

The pact also includes ideas that are not just unhelpful, but also damaging. One is to impose constitutional amendments to enforce balanced budgets, which are too rigid in a system without a big federal budget. Plans to harmonise tax bases could too easily evolve into minimum tax rates. Harmonising educational qualifications could also turn into just another way of inhibiting competition.

It is not just the countries involved that are threatened by closer integration: it is the EU as a whole. Many euro-zone countries are instinctively interventionist, hostile to unfettered competition (including tax competition) and overly sympathetic to state aid for industry. The European Commission will no doubt continue to defend the EU’s single market, with the support of several euro-zone members (such as Austria, the Netherlands and Slovakia). But the liberals are a smaller minority in the euro zone than in the wider EU. Indeed, this is why the French always wanted a bigger political role for the euro group—and why the Germans long resisted it. The euro crisis has shifted Mrs Merkel into backing closer integration of the euro zone. 

This should also worry EU countries outside the euro, including Britain, Poland and Sweden. Mrs Merkel and Mr Sarkozy have invited all EU members to join the competitiveness pact and submit to tougher fiscal scrutiny, but they are unlikely to do so unless and until they adopt the euro—and a more integrated and less liberal euro group might make joining the euro less attractive, for instance by opting for more harmonised taxes and social policies. This could even put at risk the EU’s single market. Already, some euro members hint that Britain, Poland and Sweden had an unfair advantage in 2009-10 because they could regain competitiveness by allowing their currencies to fall. It is easy to imagine such complaints leading to changes in the rules over state aid or to attacks on the four freedoms of movement—of goods, services, capital and labour—that underpin the single market. 

Explore our interactive guide to Europe's troubled economies.There is nothing wrong in principle with the idea of some EU countries going farther and faster towards political integration than others. Not all now join in the euro, the Schengen passport-free zone or European defence. Having a variety of subgroups can accommodate both those (like Belgium) that want closer political union and those (like Britain) that do not. But if the euro group turned into a protected core that agreed economic and social policies without heeding the rest, it could split the union.

The British government seems entirely happy to sit on the periphery. The Swedes and Poles are not. They are openly fretting that a more politically united euro group of 17 could divide the EU of 27. They are right.

from PRINT EDITION | Leaders

5. 求一篇2000字的经济类英文文章及翻译（英文要2000字），谢谢！

Health care
A new prescription for the poor
为贫穷者新开的处方
America is developing a two-tier health system, one for those with private insurance, the other for the less well-off
美国正在发展一个双重的健康系统，一重是为那些有个人保险的人群，而另一重则是为那些不那么富裕的人群
Oct 8th 2011 | NEW YORK | from the print edition

“IT’S
 time for Dancing with the Stars!”, a woman announces enthusiastically. 
At this New York health centre, wedged between housing projects to the 
east and Chinatown to the west, “dancing with the stars” means dancing 
with a physical therapist. An old man stands up with a nurse and begins a
 determined samba.
“是时候和明星一起跳舞了！”一位女士满怀热情地宣告。在这个坐落于房屋工程的西面，唐人街东面的纽约健康中心，“和明星起舞”的意思是和一位物理治疗师跳舞。一位老者和一个护士站起来，开始跳事先确定好的桑巴舞。

Comprehensive
 Care Management (CCM), which runs this centre, tries to keep old people
 active. To do so, explains Joseph Healy, the chief operating officer, 
is in the company’s best interest. The government pays CCM a capped rate
 for the care of its members. If someone gets sick, his health costs 
rise and the company’s margin shrinks. Mr Healy argues that the system 
is the best way to provide good care at a low cost. Increasingly others 
seem to agree.
经营这个中心的综合护理管理部门（CCM）努力保持老人们的活力。约瑟夫-海莉，首席运营官解释说，这样做符合公司
的最佳利益。政府给这个部门一个封顶的津贴来让他们照顾这些人。如果有人生病了，他的健康成本就会上升，公司的利润就会萎缩。海莉先生确定说这个系统能够
在一个低成本上提供最佳的护理。其他人也逐渐同意这个观点。

Medicaid, America’s health programme
 for the poor, is in the process of being transformed. Over the next 
three years, New York will move its entire Medicaid population into 
“managed care”, paying companies a set rate to tend to the poor, rather 
than paying a fee for each service. New York is not alone. States from 
California to Mississippi are expanding managed care. It is the 
culmination of a steady shift in the way most poor Americans receive 
their health-care treatment.
公共医疗补助，即美国的穷人健康计划，正在被改造的过程中。在接下来的 
三年内，纽约将把整个接受穷人健康计划的人群纳入“管理关怀”之中，付给公司们一个事先定好的费用来照顾那些穷人，而不是按照项目来付费。纽约不是唯一这
样做的州。加州，密西西比州正在拓展管理关怀计划。这代表一种正在进行中的稳步转变，即大部分贫穷美国人接受健康关怀方式的转变。

Medicaid
 is America’s single biggest health programme. This year roughly one in 
five Americans will be covered by Medicaid for a month or more. It 
gobbles more federal and local money than any state programme, other 
than education. Costs will rise even more when Barack Obama’s 
health-care reform expands the programme by easing eligibility rules in 
2014. Congress’s “supercommittee” is already considering cuts. However, 
there are more immediate pressures behind the present drive for change.
公
共医疗补助是美国最大的单一健康计划。今年，五个美国人中的一个就会被纳入该计划一个月或更长时间。除了教育之外，它比其他任何州的财政计划耗去更多联邦
和地方的经费。当2014年奥巴马的健康保险改革放宽适用人群而使整个计划更加庞大的时候，成本将会进一步上升。众议院的“超级委员会”已经在考虑削减经
费。然而，选择这种变化，将会有更多即刻的压力存在。

Enrolment in Medicaid jumped during the
 downturn, from 42.7m in December 2007 to 50.3m in June 2010. Mr Obama’s
 stimulus bill helped to pay for some of this, but that money has dried 
up. Faced with gaping deficits, some desperate governors slashed 
payments to hospitals and doctors, or refused to pay for trips to the 
dentist or oculist. But much the most important result has been 
structural: the expansion of managed care.
公共医疗补助计划的参与人数在经济滑坡期间从2007年
12月的 
4270万人跳到了2010年6月的5030万人。奥巴马先生的经济刺激经费能够帮助付掉其中的一部分，但是钱已经被用光。面对资金短缺，一些绝望的州长
砍掉了给医院和医生的补助，或是拒绝支付牙医和眼科医生的旅行费用。但是，更多地，最重要的结果是结构上的：管理关怀的拓展。

States
 have dabbled in managed care for decades. The trend accelerated in the 
1990s, with the share of Medicaid patients under this form of care 
reaching 72% by 2009. Now, however, there is a strong push for the 
remainder. States that did not have managed care, such as Louisiana, are
 introducing it. Other states are extending it to people previously 
deemed off limits: California and New York, for example, are moving the 
elderly and disabled into that system of care. Texas is targeting more 
than 400,000 Medicaid beneficiaries in the Rio Grande Valley. Local 
politicians had resisted the move, nervous that care might deteriorate. 
But the yawning deficit meant that they were overruled.
各个州涉足管理关怀已经有几
十年的历史了。这个趋势在90年代得到加速发展，在2009年前使用这种护理方式的公共医疗补助病人占到了72%。现在，对于剩下的人，这也是很强的推动
力。像路易斯安那州这样没有管理关怀的州正在引进管理关怀。其他州也把这个拓展到原先被认为不适用的人群：举例说像加州和纽约州，正在把老人和残障人士纳
入这个系统中，德州的目标是在格兰德河谷超过400000公共医疗补助收益人群。地方政治家反对这个举动，他们担心这个护理系统将会变质。但是巨大的赤字
意味着他们的观点注定要被批驳。

The result is a country with two distinct tiers 
of health care. Most Americans with private insurance are still 
horrified by thoughts of health-management organisations and prefer to 
pay fees for each medical service. For the poor, managed care is 
becoming the norm.
结果就是一个国家有两套截然不同的健康保险系统。大多数有个人保险的美国人仍旧害怕那些健康管理组织的想法而宁愿为单独的医疗服务付费。对于穷人来说，管理关怀已经成为一种常规。

Advocates
 of managed care have high expectations. First, they hope that it will 
make costs more predictable. Second, they believe that the change will 
improve patients’ health. In managed care, a patient has a network of 
doctors and specialists. If the programme works properly, doctors can 
monitor all aspects of care, in contrast to the fragmented 
fee-for-service system. The contracts that states have with firms can 
set standards for quality. Texas, for instance, will cut 5% from a 
company’s payment if it does not meet what is required.
管理关怀的鼓吹者有着很高的
期待。首先，他们希望这能让成本变得可以预测，其次，他们相信，这个改变可以改善病人的健康。在管理关怀中，一个病人有一个由医生和专家组成的网络。如果
这个计划运行良好，医生可以监测关怀的各个方面，相对于分离的的按服务付钱的系统来说。州政府和公司的合同可以为质量定下标准。德州，举例说，将会在付款
中扣除5%如果公司没有达到要求的标准。

The next step is to integrate care for those 
eligible for both Medicaid and Medicare, the federal programme for the 
old. These “duals” account for almost 40% of Medicaid’s costs and just 
15% of its population. “If managed care can really deliver better care 
than fee-for-service”, says Diane Rowland, chair of the commission that 
advises Congress on Medicaid, “this is the population that could prove 
it.”
下一步是整合那些同时符合公共医疗补助和长者医疗补助计划（联邦老人医疗补助）的人群。这些“双符合”人群占据了将近40%的公共医疗补
助成本和仅仅15%的人口数量。“如果管理关怀能真正比按项目付费带来更好的服务”，戴安-罗兰德，委员会（指导国会在公共医疗补助政策上进行决策）主任
说：“这是一群能证明管理关怀可行的人。”

But some, such as Norma Vescovo, are 
sceptical. As the head of the non-profit Independent Living Centre of 
Southern California (ILCSC), Ms Vescovo serves Medicaid patients with 
severe health problems. Over the years she has often sued California on 
policies that she thinks will hurt her vulnerable clients. On October 
3rd her case moved to the Supreme Court.
但是一些人，例如像诺玛-凡斯科夫就对此表示怀疑。作为非盈利的南加州独立生活中心主任，凡斯科夫女士服务于那些有严重健康问题的接受公共医疗补助的病人。在这些年间，她经常控告加州政府在一些政策上会伤害她的一些脆弱的客户。在10月3日，她的案子被移到了上诉法院。

The
 outcome of Douglas v Independent Living Centre will have profound 
implications for the future of Medicaid. Ms Vescovo’s suit concerns cuts
 to hospitals and doctors. But the case will also guide the course of 
managed care. If ILCSC and its co-plaintiffs win, private groups will 
continue to be able to challenge states on policies they think violate 
federal Medicaid law. Ms Vescovo, who argues that California’s payment 
cuts would eviscerate her clients’ access to services, worries that 
under managed care the disabled might not be able to see the specialists
 they need.
道格拉斯 v 
独立生活中心的结果将会对公共医疗补助有深远的意义。凡斯科夫女士的诉讼影响到医院和医生的津贴削减。但是这个案子将会引领管理关怀的进程。如果中心和其
他原告胜诉，私人团体将会继续在那些他们认为违反联邦法律的政策上挑战州政府。凡斯科夫女士认为说加州的支付削减计划会让她的客户失去得到服务的机会，她
还担心，在管理关怀之下，那些残障人士可能不能见到那些他们需要的专家。

The question is how to 
supervise the experiments with managed care that are being carried out 
in various states. To date, Medicaid beneficiaries have been able to 
challenge the states in court. However, if the Supreme Court rules 
against ILCSC, that avenue will be closed. The Centres for Medicare and 
Medicaid Services (CMS) technically can intervene if states do not 
provide proper access to care. In reality, CMS has few tools to do so.
问
题是怎么监管在不同州试运行的管理关怀。到目前为止，公共医疗补助受益者已经能够在法庭中挑战政府。然而，如果上诉法庭结果不利于中心，那么这条路将会被
关闭。如果州政府没有提供合适的关怀的话，公共医疗补助和长者医疗关怀中心理论上是能对此进行干涉，但事实上，他们没有太多办法。

“I’m
 a big fan of managed care”, says Sara Rosenbaum, a professor at George 
Washington University, “but this transformation may happen with almost 
no federal oversight.” Medicaid beneficiaries are vulnerable, in worse 
health than Americans as a whole. Companies may struggle to cut costs 
and provide good care as well. If states do not draft their contracts 
properly, or fail to be vigilant in monitoring patients’ health, their 
experiment in managed care could be a disaster. On the other hand, if 
states are careful they could provide an answer to the question that has
 vexed America for years: how to provide good, cheap health care.
“我是
管理关怀的拥护者”，萨拉-罗森博姆，一位乔治华盛顿大学教授说，“但是这种转变可能在没有联邦监管的情况下发生。”公共医疗补助的受益者和你脆弱，健康
程度整体上比一般美国人要差。公司可能在削减成本的同时挣扎着同样提供良好的服务。如果州政府们不好好起草他们的合同，或没有警觉地监控病人的健康的话，
他们在管理关怀上的实验可能会是一场灾难。另一方面，如果州政府们认真的话，他们能为那个困扰美国人多年的问题提供答案，即怎么提供优质的便宜的健康关
怀。

6. 求10000字左右的，与经济相关的英文论文或文献，有中文翻译的更好- -

INTO THE STORM
FOR much of the past year the fast-growing economies of the emerging world watched the Western financial hurricane from afar. Their own banks held few of the mortgage-based assets that undid the rich world’s financial firms. Commodity exporters were thriving, thanks to high prices for raw materials. China’s economic juggernaut powered on. And, from Budapest to Brasília, an abundance of credit fuelled domestic demand. Even as talk mounted of the rich world suffering its worst financial collapse since the Depression, emerging economies seemed a long way from the centre of the storm.
过去一年的大部分时间里，高速发展的新兴国家一直在远处观望着西方国家的金融风暴。他们的银行仅持有少量抵押资产，而类似的资产已经破坏了发达国家的金融公司。商品出口商因为原材料的高价格而日渐富有。中国不可抗拒的经济力量已然开启，而且信贷刺激的内需从布达佩斯到巴西利亚都表现得非常充足。尽管大萧条后关于西方国家受难于金融崩塌的话题与日俱增，但新兴国家似乎距离金融风暴的中心还有一段距离。
No longer. As foreign capital has fled and confidence evaporated, the emerging world’s stockmarkets have plunged (in some cases losing half their value) and currencies tumbled. The seizure in the credit market caused havoc, as foreign banks abruptly stopped lending and stepped back from even the most basic banking services, including trade credits.
不过目前的情况不再是那样了，随着境外资本的流失和经济信心的消失，新兴国家股市暴跌（有些地区已经腰斩），本币迅速贬值。由于外国银行突然中断贷款，并且收缩了包括贸易信贷在内的基础银行服务，新兴国家的信贷市场突发混乱，并引发了一场浩劫。
Like their rich-world counterparts, governments are battling to limit the damage (see article). That is easiest for those with large foreign-exchange reserves. Russia is spending $220 billion to shore up its financial services industry. South Korea has guaranteed $100 billion of its banks’ debt. Less well-endowed countries are asking for help. Hungary has secured a EURO5 billion ($6.6 billion) lifeline from the European Central Bank and is negotiating a loan from the IMF, as is Ukraine. Close to a dozen countries are talking to the fund about financial help.
新兴国家的政府和发达国家的政府一样都在为控制损失程度而奋斗。不过对于外汇储备充足的国家来说难度会小一些：俄罗斯斥资2200亿美元重振金融服务行业；韩国政府担保了1000亿美元的银行债务。而那些储备并不充足的国家正在四处求援：匈牙利成功向欧洲央行求得了50亿欧元（约66亿美元）的生命线，同时也在同国际货币基金组织协商借款事宜，同时向国际货币基金组织求援的还有乌克兰。近一打儿的国家在向基金组织求助。
Those with long-standing problems are being driven to desperate measures. Argentina is nationalising its private pension funds, seemingly to stave off default (see article). But even stalwarts are looking weaker. Figures released this week showed that China’s growth slowed to 9% in the year to the third quarter-still a rapid pace but a lot slower than the double-digit rates of recent years.
有持续问题的国家正棋行险招：阿根廷正在将私人养老金国有化，意图阻止违约的发生。即使强有力的国家也表现出虚弱一面：本周公布的数字表明今年中国的增长率在第三季度减缓为9%，虽然增速还算快，但是与近些年的两位数增率相比缓慢了不少。
Blowing cold on credit
对信贷没兴趣
The various emerging economies are in different states of readiness, but the cumulative impact of all this will be enormous. Most obviously, how these countries fare will determine whether the world economy faces a mild recession or something nastier. Emerging economies accounted for around three-quarters of global growth over the past 18 months. But their economic fate will also have political consequences.
众多新兴经济的意愿并不相同，但是累计在一起的影响力却非同一般。最明显的就是这些国家的表现将会决定世界经济所面临的是一个较为缓和的衰退还是更可怕的情况。在过去18个月的全球经济增长中，新兴经济贡献了75%。但是他们的经济命运也会有一些政治后果。
In many places-eastern Europe is one example (see article)-financial turmoil is hitting weak governments. But even strong regimes could suffer. Some experts think that China needs growth of 7% a year to contain social unrest. More generally, the coming strife will shape the debate about the integration of the world economy. Unlike many previous emerging-market crises, today’s mess spread from the rich world, largely thanks to increasingly integrated capital markets. If emerging economies collapse-either into a currency crisis or a sharp recession-there will be yet more questioning of the wisdom of globalised finance.
在类似东欧的很多地区，金融混乱目前的打击目标是软弱的政府；但强硬的政权同样会尝到苦果。一些专家认为中国每年需要7%的增长率来阻止社会动荡的发生。总体来说，如此争端必将影响全球经济一体化的讨论。与以往数次新兴经济危机不同，这次的混乱始于发达国家，很大程度上要归咎于一体化的资本市场。一旦新兴经济崩溃，无论是货币危机还是剧烈的经济萧条，大家对于金融全球化是否属明智之举会有更多的质疑。
Fortunately, the picture is not universally dire. All emerging economies will slow. Some will surely face deep recessions. But many are facing the present danger in stronger shape than ever before, armed with large reserves, flexible currencies and strong budgets. Good policy-both at home and in the rich world-can yet avoid a catastrophe.
幸运的是上述恐怖的场景没有发生在全球的每个角落：所有的新兴经济都会减缓发展速度，有一些也必将面临深度萧条；但是更多的国家在面临当下危机的时候却拥有比以往任何时候都强壮的形式，用充足的储备、弹性的货币和强大的预算武装自己。新兴国家及发达国家良好的政策可以避免大灾难的发生。
One reason for hope is that the direct economic fallout from the rich world’s disaster is manageable. Falling demand in America and Europe hurts exports, particularly in Asia and Mexico. Commodity prices have fallen: oil is down nearly 60% from its peak and many crops and metals have done worse. That has a mixed effect. Although it hurts commodity-exporters from Russia to South America, it helps commodity importers in Asia and reduces inflation fears everywhere. Countries like Venezuela that have been run badly are vulnerable (see article), but given the scale of the past boom, the commodity bust so far seems unlikely to cause widespread crises.
至少有一个原因值得抱有希望：发达国家此次灾难的直接经济影响还是在可控的范围内。欧美锐减的需求对出口来说无疑是一个打击，特别是对亚洲和墨西哥。商品价格走低：原油价格与巅峰时期比较已经下降了60%，很多粮食和金属类商品跌幅更大。这两个现象有混合效果：尽管从俄罗斯到南美的商品（能源）出口企业备受打击，但却帮助了亚洲的商品（能源）进口商，并且缓和了各地对通胀的恐惧。委内瑞拉的情形一直很糟糕，也很脆弱；不过由于过去极度的繁荣，商品价格下跌目前还不会引发大范围传播的危机。
The more dangerous shock is financial. Wealth is being squeezed as asset prices decline. China’s house prices, for instance, have started falling (see article). This will dampen domestic confidence, even though consumers are much less indebted than they are in the rich world. Elsewhere, the sudden dearth of foreign-bank lending and the flight of hedge funds and other investors from bond markets has slammed the brakes on credit growth. And just as booming credit once underpinned strong domestic spending, so tighter credit will mean slower growth.
比商品价格更令人震惊的事情发生在金融领域。由于资产价格的下降，财富水平正在被挤压缩水。以中国房价为例，目前已经开始下跌。尽管新兴国家的消费者比发达国家的负债水平低很多，上述情况还是会挫伤国内的经济信心。在其他方面，国外银行借款骤然匮乏、对冲基金以及其他投资者逃离债券市场，这些因素给信贷增长踩了一脚急刹车。正如发达的信贷曾经强力支撑国内支出那样，信贷紧缩将意味着增长放缓。
Again, the impact will differ by country. Thanks to huge current-account surpluses in China and the oil-exporters in the Gulf, emerging economies as a group still send capital to the rich world. But over 80 have deficits of more than 5% of GDP. Most of these are poor countries that live off foreign aid; but some larger ones rely on private capital. For the likes of Turkey and South Africa a sudden slowing in foreign financing would force a dramatic adjustment. A particular worry is eastern Europe, where many countries have double-digit deficits. In addition, even some countries with surpluses, such as Russia, have banks that have grown accustomed to easy foreign lending because of the integration of global finance. The rich world’s bank bail-outs may limit the squeeze, but the flow of capital to the emerging world will slow. The Institute of International Finance, a bankers’ group, expects a 30% decline in net flows of private capital from last year.
需要再次重申的是，冲击的表现会因国家的不同而有所区别。多亏中国和海湾产油国经常项目下的巨额顺差，新型经济整体还不断的向发达国家输送资本。但是80 多个国家的财政赤字已经超过GDP的5%，其中的多数是那些依靠国外救助过活得贫困国家；不过也有一些依靠私人资本的大国。对于类似土耳其和南非的国家来说，突然减缓的境外融资迫使其进行大幅调整。东欧的情况特别令人担忧，那里的不少国家赤字水平已经达到了两位数。另外，象俄罗斯这样处于顺差的国家，其银行也逐渐适应了可以轻易从外国取得的贷款，原因自然是全球金融一体化。发达国家的救助计划也许可以限制财富被挤压的水平，但资本流向新兴世界的速度无疑会减慢。国际金融研协会预测私人资本的净流量比去年回减少30%。
A wing and a prayer
飞行之翼与祈祷者
This credit crunch will be grim, but most emerging markets can avoid catastrophe. The biggest ones are in relatively good shape. The more vulnerable ones can (and should) be helped.
信贷紧缩必将令人生畏，不过多数新兴市场可以躲过一劫，最大的市场形势还相当不错。比较脆弱的市场可以（也应该）得到帮助。
Among the giants, China is in a league of its own, with a $2 trillion arsenal of reserves, a current-account surplus, little connection to foreign banks and a budget surplus that offers lots of room to boost spending. Since the country’s leaders have made clear that they will do whatever it takes to cushion growth, China’s economy is likely to slow-perhaps to 8%-but not collapse. Although that is not enough to save the world economy, such growth in China would put a floor under commodity prices and help other countries in the emerging world.
在那些坚强的巨人中，中国卓然不群：手握2万亿美元的储备，经常项下的顺差状态，与国外银行罕有关联，过剩的预算给推动支出留有足够空间。鉴于国家领导人已经明确表示将不惜一切代价为经济增长减速缓冲，中国的经济增长应该会减缓到大约8%的水平，但是决不会崩溃。虽然这不足以挽救世界经济，但是该增长率将会为商品价格建底并帮到新兴世界的其他国家。
The other large economies will be harder hit, but should be able to weather the storm. India has a big budget deficit and many Brazilian firms have a large foreign-currency exposure. But Brazil’s economy is diversified and both countries have plenty of reserves to smooth the shift to slower growth. With $550 billion of reserves, Russia ought to be able to stop a run on the rouble. In the short-term at least, the most vulnerable countries are all smaller ones.
其他的经济大国会受到更大的冲击，不过应该可以禁受住风暴侵袭。印度的财政赤字巨大，巴西很多公司面临巨大的外汇风险。但巴西经济已经实现多样化，同时上述两个国家拥有充足的储备来平稳过渡到缓慢的增长。俄罗斯掌握着5500亿美元的储备，应该能够阻止对卢布的抢购。至少在短期内，小国家才是最弱不禁风的。
There will be pain as tighter credit forces adjustments. But sensible, speedy international assistance would make a big difference. Several emerging countries have asked America’s Federal Reserve for liquidity support; some hope that China will bail them out. A better route is surely the IMF, which has huge expertise and some $250 billion to lend. Sadly, borrowing from the fund carries a stigma. That needs to change. The IMF should develop quicker, more flexible financial instruments and minimise the conditions it attaches to loans. Over the past month deft policymaking saw off calamity in the rich world. Now it is time for something similar in the emerging world.
受到紧缩信贷压力进行的调整必然带来痛苦，但快速的国际援助是明智之举，因为这会让结果很不相同。一些新兴国家已经向美联储求援以缓解流动性问题；有一些则希望中国可以拯救他们与水火。更佳的求救路线莫过于国际货币基金组织，因为它掌握大量的专门知识和2500亿美元的可出借款项。不幸的是人们认为向基金借款有辱其名，国际货币基金组织应该推出更快捷、更灵活的金融工具，同时实现借贷条件最小化。过去数月中，机敏的决策驱散了发达国家的灾难。现在也正是新兴世界发生类似事情的时候了。

7. 求经济类英文文章(带中文翻译)

Macroeconomics is a sub-field of economics that examines the behavior of the economy as a whole, once all of the individual economic decisions of companies and industries have been summed. Economy-wide phenomena considered by macroeconomics include Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and how it is affected by changes in unemployment, national income, rate of growth, and price levels. 
In contrast, microeconomics is the study of the economic behaviour and decision-making of individual consumers, firms, and industries. 
Macroeconomics can be used to analyze how to influence government policy goals such as economic growth, price stability, full employment and the attainment of a sustainable balance of payments. 
Macroeconomics is sometimes used to refer to a general approach to economic reasoning, which includes long term strategies and rational expectations in aggregate behavior. 
Until the 1930s most economic analysis did not separate out individual economics behavior from aggregate behavior. With the Great Depression of the 1930s, suffered throughout the developed world at the time, and the development of the concept of national income and product statistics, the field of macroeconomics began to expand. Particularly influential were the ideas of John Maynard Keynes, who formulated theories to try to explain the Great Depression. Before that time, comprehensive national accounts, as we know them today, did not exist . 
One of the challenges of economics has been a struggle to reconcile macroeconomic and microeconomic models. Starting in the 1950s, macroeconomists developed micro-based models of macroeconomic behavior (such as the consumption function). Dutch economist Jan Tinbergen developed the first comprehensive national macroeconomic model, which he first built for the Netherlands and later applied to the United States and the United Kingdom after World War II. The first global macroeconomic model, Wharton Econometric Forecasting Associates LINK project, was initiated by Lawrence Klein and was mentioned in his citation for the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics in 1980. 
Theorists such as Robert Lucas Jr suggested (in the 1970s) that at least some traditional Keynesian (after British economist John Maynard Keynes) macroeconomic models were questionable as they were not derived from assumptions about individual behavior, although it was not clear whether the failures were in microeconomic assumptions or in macroeconomic models. However, New Keynesian macroeconomics has generally presented microeconomic models to shore up their macroeconomic theorizing, and some Keynesians have contested the idea that microeconomic foundations are essential, if the model is analytically useful. An analogy might be that the fact that quantum phisics is not fully consistent with relativity theory doesn´t mean that realtivity is false. Many important microeconomic assumptions have never been proved, and some have proved wrong. 
The various schools of thought are not always in direct competition with one another - even though they sometimes reach differing conclusions. Macroeconomics is an ever evolving area of research. The goal of economic research is not to be "right," but rather to be accurate. It is likely that none of the current schools of economic thought perfectly capture the workings of the economy. They do, however, each contribute a small piece of the overall puzzle. As one learns more about each school of thought, it is possible to combine aspects of each in order to reach an informed synthesis. 
The traditional distinction is between two different approaches to economics: Keynesian economics, focusing on demand; and supply-side (or neo-classical) economics, focusing on supply. Neither view is typically endorsed to the complete exclusion of the other, but most schools do tend clearly to emphasize one or the other as a theoretical foundation. 
• Keynesian economics focuses on aggregate demand to explain levels of unemployment and the business cycle. That is, business cycle fluctuations should be reduced through fiscal policy (the government spends more or less depending on the situation) and monetary policy. Early Keynesian macroeconomics was "activist," calling for regular use of policy to stabilize the capitalist economy, while some Keynesians called for the use of incomes policies. 
• Supply-side economics delineates quite clearly the roles of monetary policy and fiscal policy. The focus for monetary policy should be purely on the price of money as determined by the supply of money and the demand for money. It advocates a monetary policy that directly targets the value of money and does not target interest rates at all. Typically the value of money is measured by reference to gold or some other reference. The focus of fiscal policy is to raise revenue for worthy government investments with a clear recognition of the impact that taxation has on domestic trade. It places heavy emphasis on Say's law, which states that recessions do not occur because of failure in demand or lack of money. 
• Monetarism, led by Milton Friedman, which holds that inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon. It rejects fiscal policy because it leads to "crowding out" of the private sector. Further, it does not wish to combat inflation or deflation by means of active demand management as in Keynesian economics, but by means of monetary policy rules, such as keeping the rate of growth of the money supply constant over time. 
• New Keynesian economics, which developed partly in response to new classical economics, strives to provide microeconomic foundations to Keynesian economics by showing how imperfect markets can justify demand management. 
• Austrian economics is a laissez-faire school of macroeconomics. It focuses on the business cycle that arises from government or central-bank interference that leads to deviations from the natural rate of interest. 
• Post-Keynesian economics represents a dissent from mainstream Keynesian economics, emphasizing the role of uncertainty and the historical process in macroeconomics. 
• New classical economics. The original theoretical impetus was the charge that Keynesian economics lacks microeconomic foundations -- i.e. its assertions are not founded in basic economic theory. This school emerged during the 1970s. This school asserts that it does not make sense to claim that the economy at any time might be "out-of-equilibrium". Fluctuations in aggregate variables follow from the individuals in the society continuously re-optimizing as new information on the state of the world is revealed. Later yielded an explicit school which argued that macro-economics does not have micro-economic foundations, but is instead the tool of studying economic systems at equilibrium. 
宏观经济学是一种分场经济学的行为,研究是在整个经济中,一旦所有的个人的经济决策,为公司和产业被。宏观经济学认为经济现象包括国内生产总值(GDP)以及它是如何变化影响失业的国民收入的)经济成长率、价格水平。

相反,微观经济学研究的就是经济行为和决策的个体消费者,公司和行业。

宏观经济学可以用来分析如何影响政府的政策的目标,比如经济增长,价格稳定,充分就业和获取可持续国际收支差额。

宏观经济学有时用来指一个经济理论的主要途径,包括长期战略的期望和理性综合行为。

直到30年代为止,大部分的经济分析没有独立的个人经济综合行为举止。与1930年代的经济大萧条,遭受了在所有发达国家,发展国民收入的概念和产品的统计数据,但是研究领域的宏观经济学开始扩展。具有特殊影响力的想法是,约翰•梅纳德凯恩斯理论,努力向他们解释制定了经济大萧条。在那时候,综合国民经济核算,如同我们知道他们今天,是不存在的。

经济学的一个挑战是一场斗争调和宏观经济政策和微观经济政策,模型。开始于20世纪50年代,macroeconomists发达micro-based模型的宏观经济行为(如消费函数)。1月Tinbergen荷兰经济学家第一个全面发展国家宏观经济模型,该模型他第一次建成为荷兰和后应用于美国和英国二战之后。第一个全球宏观经济模型,沃顿计量预测伙伴联系工程项目,发生在劳伦斯发起克莱恩和被提及他的嘉奖经济学诺贝尔经济学奖1980年。

理论家如罗伯特·卢卡斯认为(是在上世纪70年代),认为至少有一些传统的凯恩斯(英国经济学家约翰梅纳德凯恩斯)宏观经济模型都是可疑的,因为他们不是来源于假设的个人行为,虽然现在还不清楚这些失败在微观经济的假定,或是对宏观经济模型。然而,最新凯恩斯主义的宏观微观模型提出了大致以支持他们的宏观经济理论有争议,一些凯恩斯主义者的想法,微观经济基础是必要的,如果模型是分析有用的。打个比方可能是,这样的事实,即量子phisics并不完全符合相对论´,并不代表没有realtivity是假的。许多重要的微观经济假设从来没有被证明,而有些人的证明是错误的。

各种各样的思想学派并不总是在彼此的直接竞争,尽管他们有时会达到不同的结论。宏观经济学是一种前所未有的领域的研究。研究经济学的目标不是"正确",而是是精确的。很有可能是学校目前尚无一个经济思想完全捕捉运作方式的经济。不过,他们的贡献每一小块整体难题。当你学会更多关于每个思想学派,它能把方面的每一个为了达到一个通知的合成。

传统的区别是留给经济学两种不同的方法,重点凯恩斯经济学和供方需求;(或古典)经济学、关注供应。也都是典型的观点完全排除其他,但大多数学校都往往清晰地强调一个或另一个是的理论基础。

•凯恩斯经济学交融在总需求,以解释失业率和商业周期。商业周期波动,应减少通过财政政策(政府花费或多或少根据实际情况)和货币政策。早期凯恩斯主义的宏观经济学是“活动家,定期使用《召唤的政策稳定资本主义经济,虽然有些凯恩斯主义要求使用收入政策。

•供给的经济学的作用很明显地在当前货币政策与财政政策。关注于货币政策应该是完全对价格的钱所确定的货币供应的需求的特点,为了金钱。它提倡货币政策,直接目标钱的价值,不目标利率。典型的钱的价值在于用参考金或其他参考。财政政策的重点是提高政府农业投资价值的收入为一个明确的认识税收的影响在国内贸易。它设置了过度强调了说的法律,它表明不会发生经济衰退需求下降、因为没有缺钱。

•货币主义的带领下,由弗里德曼,认为始终通货膨胀是一种货币现象。财政政策拒绝,因为会导致“挤退”的私人生活。此外,它不希望对抗通货膨胀或通货紧缩采用主动需求管理在凯恩斯经济学,通过货币政策规则,即坚持的增长速度恒定的钱。

凯恩斯•新经济发达的部分原因是为了适应新古典经济学、致力于提供凯恩斯现代经济学的微观经济基础显示出了市场的不完善就能名正言顺的需求管理等。

•奥地利经济学是个自由放任主义的学校的宏观经济。它侧重于商业周期,而政府或中央银行的干扰导致偏离自然失业率的兴趣。

•Post-Keynesian经济学所代表了凯恩斯经济学主流的作用,强调历史过程中不确定性和宏观经济。

•新古典经济学。原理论动力的费用是凯恩斯经济学缺乏有效的微观经济基础——亦即其断言不成立于基本经济理论。这所学校出现在20世纪70年代。这所学校断言它是没有道理的主张经济会随时out-of-equilibrium”。波动的总变量遵从的在这个社会的个人不断re-optimizing新信息的状态的世界就会显现出来。后来取得了一个显式学校一样,认为宏观经济学没有微观经济基础,反而学习经济系统的工具在平衡。

8. 求关于经济方面的英文文献以及翻译成中文

INTO THE STORM
FOR much of the past year the fast-growing economies of the emerging world watched the Western financial hurricane from afar. Their own banks held few of the mortgage-based assets that undid the rich world’s financial firms. Commodity exporters were thriving, thanks to high prices for raw materials. China’s economic juggernaut powered on. And, from Budapest to Brasília, an abundance of credit fuelled domestic demand. Even as talk mounted of the rich world suffering its worst financial collapse since the Depression, emerging economies seemed a long way from the centre of the storm.
过去一年的大部分时间里，高速发展的新兴国家一直在远处观望着西方国家的金融风暴。他们的银行仅持有少量抵押资产，而类似的资产已经破坏了发达国家的金融公司。商品出口商因为原材料的高价格而日渐富有。中国不可抗拒的经济力量已然开启，而且信贷刺激的内需从布达佩斯到巴西利亚都表现得非常充足。尽管大萧条后关于西方国家受难于金融崩塌的话题与日俱增，但新兴国家似乎距离金融风暴的中心还有一段距离。
No longer. As foreign capital has fled and confidence evaporated, the emerging world’s stockmarkets have plunged (in some cases losing half their value) and currencies tumbled. The seizure in the credit market caused havoc, as foreign banks abruptly stopped lending and stepped back from even the most basic banking services, including trade credits.
不过目前的情况不再是那样了，随着境外资本的流失和经济信心的消失，新兴国家股市暴跌（有些地区已经腰斩），本币迅速贬值。由于外国银行突然中断贷款，并且收缩了包括贸易信贷在内的基础银行服务，新兴国家的信贷市场突发混乱，并引发了一场浩劫。
Like their rich-world counterparts, governments are battling to limit the damage (see article). That is easiest for those with large foreign-exchange reserves. Russia is spending $220 billion to shore up its financial services industry. South Korea has guaranteed $100 billion of its banks’ debt. Less well-endowed countries are asking for help. Hungary has secured a EURO5 billion ($6.6 billion) lifeline from the European Central Bank and is negotiating a loan from the IMF, as is Ukraine. Close to a dozen countries are talking to the fund about financial help.
新兴国家的政府和发达国家的政府一样都在为控制损失程度而奋斗。不过对于外汇储备充足的国家来说难度会小一些：俄罗斯斥资2200亿美元重振金融服务行业；韩国政府担保了1000亿美元的银行债务。而那些储备并不充足的国家正在四处求援：匈牙利成功向欧洲央行求得了50亿欧元（约66亿美元）的生命线，同时也在同国际货币基金组织协商借款事宜，同时向国际货币基金组织求援的还有乌克兰。近一打儿的国家在向基金组织求助。
Those with long-standing problems are being driven to desperate measures. Argentina is nationalising its private pension funds, seemingly to stave off default (see article). But even stalwarts are looking weaker. Figures released this week showed that China’s growth slowed to 9% in the year to the third quarter-still a rapid pace but a lot slower than the double-digit rates of recent years.
有持续问题的国家正棋行险招：阿根廷正在将私人养老金国有化，意图阻止违约的发生。即使强有力的国家也表现出虚弱一面：本周公布的数字表明今年中国的增长率在第三季度减缓为9%，虽然增速还算快，但是与近些年的两位数增率相比缓慢了不少。
Blowing cold on credit
对信贷没兴趣
The various emerging economies are in different states of readiness, but the cumulative impact of all this will be enormous. Most obviously, how these countries fare will determine whether the world economy faces a mild recession or something nastier. Emerging economies accounted for around three-quarters of global growth over the past 18 months. But their economic fate will also have political consequences.
众多新兴经济的意愿并不相同，但是累计在一起的影响力却非同一般。最明显的就是这些国家的表现将会决定世界经济所面临的是一个较为缓和的衰退还是更可怕的情况。在过去18个月的全球经济增长中，新兴经济贡献了75%。但是他们的经济命运也会有一些政治后果。
In many places-eastern Europe is one example (see article)-financial turmoil is hitting weak governments. But even strong regimes could suffer. Some experts think that China needs growth of 7% a year to contain social unrest. More generally, the coming strife will shape the debate about the integration of the world economy. Unlike many previous emerging-market crises, today’s mess spread from the rich world, largely thanks to increasingly integrated capital markets. If emerging economies collapse-either into a currency crisis or a sharp recession-there will be yet more questioning of the wisdom of globalised finance.
在类似东欧的很多地区，金融混乱目前的打击目标是软弱的政府；但强硬的政权同样会尝到苦果。一些专家认为中国每年需要7%的增长率来阻止社会动荡的发生。总体来说，如此争端必将影响全球经济一体化的讨论。与以往数次新兴经济危机不同，这次的混乱始于发达国家，很大程度上要归咎于一体化的资本市场。一旦新兴经济崩溃，无论是货币危机还是剧烈的经济萧条，大家对于金融全球化是否属明智之举会有更多的质疑。
Fortunately, the picture is not universally dire. All emerging economies will slow. Some will surely face deep recessions. But many are facing the present danger in stronger shape than ever before, armed with large reserves, flexible currencies and strong budgets. Good policy-both at home and in the rich world-can yet avoid a catastrophe.
幸运的是上述恐怖的场景没有发生在全球的每个角落：所有的新兴经济都会减缓发展速度，有一些也必将面临深度萧条；但是更多的国家在面临当下危机的时候却拥有比以往任何时候都强壮的形式，用充足的储备、弹性的货币和强大的预算武装自己。新兴国家及发达国家良好的政策可以避免大灾难的发生。
One reason for hope is that the direct economic fallout from the rich world’s disaster is manageable. Falling demand in America and Europe hurts exports, particularly in Asia and Mexico. Commodity prices have fallen: oil is down nearly 60% from its peak and many crops and metals have done worse. That has a mixed effect. Although it hurts commodity-exporters from Russia to South America, it helps commodity importers in Asia and reduces inflation fears everywhere. Countries like Venezuela that have been run badly are vulnerable (see article), but given the scale of the past boom, the commodity bust so far seems unlikely to cause widespread crises.
至少有一个原因值得抱有希望：发达国家此次灾难的直接经济影响还是在可控的范围内。欧美锐减的需求对出口来说无疑是一个打击，特别是对亚洲和墨西哥。商品价格走低：原油价格与巅峰时期比较已经下降了60%，很多粮食和金属类商品跌幅更大。这两个现象有混合效果：尽管从俄罗斯到南美的商品（能源）出口企业备受打击，但却帮助了亚洲的商品（能源）进口商，并且缓和了各地对通胀的恐惧。委内瑞拉的情形一直很糟糕，也很脆弱；不过由于过去极度的繁荣，商品价格下跌目前还不会引发大范围传播的危机。
The more dangerous shock is financial. Wealth is being squeezed as asset prices decline. China’s house prices, for instance, have started falling (see article). This will dampen domestic confidence, even though consumers are much less indebted than they are in the rich world. Elsewhere, the sudden dearth of foreign-bank lending and the flight of hedge funds and other investors from bond markets has slammed the brakes on credit growth. And just as booming credit once underpinned strong domestic spending, so tighter credit will mean slower growth.
比商品价格更令人震惊的事情发生在金融领域。由于资产价格的下降，财富水平正在被挤压缩水。以中国房价为例，目前已经开始下跌。尽管新兴国家的消费者比发达国家的负债水平低很多，上述情况还是会挫伤国内的经济信心。在其他方面，国外银行借款骤然匮乏、对冲基金以及其他投资者逃离债券市场，这些因素给信贷增长踩了一脚急刹车。正如发达的信贷曾经强力支撑国内支出那样，信贷紧缩将意味着增长放缓。
Again, the impact will differ by country. Thanks to huge current-account surpluses in China and the oil-exporters in the Gulf, emerging economies as a group still send capital to the rich world. But over 80 have deficits of more than 5% of GDP. Most of these are poor countries that live off foreign aid; but some larger ones rely on private capital. For the likes of Turkey and South Africa a sudden slowing in foreign financing would force a dramatic adjustment. A particular worry is eastern Europe, where many countries have double-digit deficits. In addition, even some countries with surpluses, such as Russia, have banks that have grown accustomed to easy foreign lending because of the integration of global finance. The rich world’s bank bail-outs may limit the squeeze, but the flow of capital to the emerging world will slow. The Institute of International Finance, a bankers’ group, expects a 30% decline in net flows of private capital from last year.
需要再次重申的是，冲击的表现会因国家的不同而有所区别。多亏中国和海湾产油国经常项目下的巨额顺差，新型经济整体还不断的向发达国家输送资本。但是80 多个国家的财政赤字已经超过GDP的5%，其中的多数是那些依靠国外救助过活得贫困国家；不过也有一些依靠私人资本的大国。对于类似土耳其和南非的国家来说，突然减缓的境外融资迫使其进行大幅调整。东欧的情况特别令人担忧，那里的不少国家赤字水平已经达到了两位数。另外，象俄罗斯这样处于顺差的国家，其银行也逐渐适应了可以轻易从外国取得的贷款，原因自然是全球金融一体化。发达国家的救助计划也许可以限制财富被挤压的水平，但资本流向新兴世界的速度无疑会减慢。国际金融研协会预测私人资本的净流量比去年回减少30%。
A wing and a prayer
飞行之翼与祈祷者
This credit crunch will be grim, but most emerging markets can avoid catastrophe. The biggest ones are in relatively good shape. The more vulnerable ones can (and should) be helped.
信贷紧缩必将令人生畏，不过多数新兴市场可以躲过一劫，最大的市场形势还相当不错。比较脆弱的市场可以（也应该）得到帮助。
Among the giants, China is in a league of its own, with a $2 trillion arsenal of reserves, a current-account surplus, little connection to foreign banks and a budget surplus that offers lots of room to boost spending. Since the country’s leaders have made clear that they will do whatever it takes to cushion growth, China’s economy is likely to slow-perhaps to 8%-but not collapse. Although that is not enough to save the world economy, such growth in China would put a floor under commodity prices and help other countries in the emerging world.
在那些坚强的巨人中，中国卓然不群：手握2万亿美元的储备，经常项下的顺差状态，与国外银行罕有关联，过剩的预算给推动支出留有足够空间。鉴于国家领导人已经明确表示将不惜一切代价为经济增长减速缓冲，中国的经济增长应该会减缓到大约8%的水平，但是决不会崩溃。虽然这不足以挽救世界经济，但是该增长率将会为商品价格建底并帮到新兴世界的其他国家。
The other large economies will be harder hit, but should be able to weather the storm. India has a big budget deficit and many Brazilian firms have a large foreign-currency exposure. But Brazil’s economy is diversified and both countries have plenty of reserves to smooth the shift to slower growth. With $550 billion of reserves, Russia ought to be able to stop a run on the rouble. In the short-term at least, the most vulnerable countries are all smaller ones.
其他的经济大国会受到更大的冲击，不过应该可以禁受住风暴侵袭。印度的财政赤字巨大，巴西很多公司面临巨大的外汇风险。但巴西经济已经实现多样化，同时上述两个国家拥有充足的储备来平稳过渡到缓慢的增长。俄罗斯掌握着5500亿美元的储备，应该能够阻止对卢布的抢购。至少在短期内，小国家才是最弱不禁风的。
There will be pain as tighter credit forces adjustments. But sensible, speedy international assistance would make a big difference. Several emerging countries have asked America’s Federal Reserve for liquidity support; some hope that China will bail them out. A better route is surely the IMF, which has huge expertise and some $250 billion to lend. Sadly, borrowing from the fund carries a stigma. That needs to change. The IMF should develop quicker, more flexible financial instruments and minimise the conditions it attaches to loans. Over the past month deft policymaking saw off calamity in the rich world. Now it is time for something similar in the emerging world.
受到紧缩信贷压力进行的调整必然带来痛苦，但快速的国际援助是明智之举，因为这会让结果很不相同。一些新兴国家已经向美联储求援以缓解流动性问题；有一些则希望中国可以拯救他们与水火。更佳的求救路线莫过于国际货币基金组织，因为它掌握大量的专门知识和2500亿美元的可出借款项。不幸的是人们认为向基金借款有辱其名，国际货币基金组织应该推出更快捷、更灵活的金融工具，同时实现借贷条件最小化。过去数月中，机敏的决策驱散了发达国家的灾难。现在也正是新兴世界发生类似事情的时候了。